Research

This article examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on economic analysis, revisiting Lucas's critique through the lens of recent technological advances. We highlight the contributions of machine learning-based models and bio-inspired approaches while addressing the current limitations regarding interpretability and applicability. By combining big data and innovative methods, AI overcomes some traditional constraints but requires critical oversight to ensure relevant and ethical economic forecasting.

The aftermaths of the 2008 subprime crisis have modified financing channels of French local governments and led to regulation changes. Using a unique panel of the 96 French Metropolitan Departments covering 13 years between 2005 and 2017, this paper investigates the determinants of Departments' borrowing using a spatial panel approach. Our estimates of a fixed-effects Spatial Durbin Model show that spatial determinants contribute to explain Departments' financing decisions. The study exhibits the existence of a spatial multiplier effect that may influence the systemic risk of bankruptcy for French Department. In this context, the recent profound reshaping of the local financing sector should be considered with care paying attention to spatial interactions.

In this paper we examine whether the weights of the forecasted macroeconomic variables in the valuation of sovereign risks has changed after the adoption of the Bâle 2 new regulation framework (around the years 2005/2006 when the new rules begun to be implemented in Europe). For purpose of illustration, we examine the case of France, Germany and Greece. We estimate a time-varying probability Markov Switching model in which the break date is endogenous. Our results show differences across countries.

This paper provides empirical evidence of the heterogeneous borrowing behaviours of French regions, despite a common accountability constraint that forces them to balance their budget and to borrow only to finance investment expenditure (golden rule). To this end, we conduct a quantile regression analysis. The heterogeneity is very pronounced when the regions face a negative shock on debt, for instance a tightening of financial conditions. Our findings may be due to the fact that the Golden rule can be thought of as a "soft" rule if some local administrations believe that a financial rescue from the central government is automatic. Hence, in the French case the bailing-out hypothesis cannot be rejected.

Using second generation Panel Unit Root Tests (PURT), panel cointegration tests and panel Granger causality tests we find that although the financial crisis may have increased risk aversion for investors, it did not make disappearing speculative behaviours on structured credit markets. On the contrary, support measures to the banking sector and fiscal stimulus packages have given the opportunity for some investors to speculate on sovereign debt through Credit Default Swap (CDS) vehicles. Thus this article supports ongoing initiatives to strengthen the prudential regulation undertaken in these markets under the Group of 20 (G20) or the Financial Stability Forum (FSF).

Although many works support creditor friendly bankruptcy laws, an evolution towards debtor friendly systems is at work. This paper proposes a theoretical ground to meet this paradox. It reconsiders the economic role of bankruptcy law by stressing on the courts' production of information. It reveals that the transmission of a lenient signal by judges makes it possible to reduce the hazard that bad risks seek to avoid going on trial. Thus, it shows that debtor friendly bankruptcy laws are not systematically opposed to creditors' interests. They reduce the risk of the economy and contribute to the improvement of the global efficiency.

Contribution to the Elgar Encyclopedia of Corporate Entrepreneurship and Intrapreneurship (Entry 38). This entry examines the role of corporate entrepreneurship in the tourism and hospitality sector, with a focus on resilience and growth strategies in a context of major transitions.

Alors que les migrants ne représentent qu'un peu moins de 4 % de la population mondiale, ils se retrouvent souvent au cœur des débats politiques, blâmés pour être à l'origine ou pour subir les transitions que connaissent nos sociétés contemporaines, qu'elles soient climatiques, numériques, sanitaires ou sociétales. Cet ouvrage rassemble les contributions d'enseignants-chercheurs de l'AEI International School de l'Université Paris-Est Créteil, qui explorent ces enjeux cruciaux afin d'offrir une perspective éclairée et pluridisciplinaire sur les dynamiques migratoires et leurs liens avec les transitions actuelles. En analysant l'interaction entre migration et changements sociétaux, cet ouvrage vise à favoriser une compréhension éclairée de ces relations complexes, invitant les lecteurs à réfléchir de manière critique sur le rôle des migrants dans la construction de notre monde.

Les politiques budgétaires sont au cœur de la crise d'ampleur inédite qui affecte l'ensemble des économies avancées. Cet ouvrage traite de l'actualité des politiques budgétaires en réunissant en un seul volume les principaux arguments théoriques et l'analyse des faits les plus notables de la crise, et en abordant les questions de politique budgétaire sous différents angles — macroéconomique, fiscal, institutionnel et financier. Les défis posés par le rôle de la politique budgétaire pour lisser le cycle économique, soutenir la croissance à long terme et concevoir une fiscalité efficace sont exposés sans masquer les clivages entre courants de pensée. Les clés de compréhension de la nouvelle gouvernance économique européenne, les interactions entre crise bancaire et crise des dettes souveraines, et les conséquences des choix de financement dans les pays avancés sont également analysées.